Paula in Canada: where I agree, where I disagree (and what changed in immigration)

A channel subscriber messaged me on Instagram asking for my opinion on a video by Paula no Canadá. I’d already watched other videos of hers before, good content, she knows what she’s doing. But in this specific one she was talking more about immigration, and she herself says immigration isn’t her thing. I, on the other hand, have spent 7 years living the Canadian immigration process firsthand, so I figured it was worth raising a few points. This text isn’t a creator takedown, it’s a dialogue: there are parts where I agree 100% with her, and parts where I think the line of thinking missed the mark. Let’s go piece by piece.

Before anything else: respect for her work

First of all: Paula has been here in Canada for many years, she has ground-level experience, she knows daily life in a way that I, who landed in Vancouver in September 2024, still don’t. The criticism I’m going to make here isn’t about the person, it’s about a few specific opinions she brought up in that video about immigration. And she herself acknowledges in the video that immigration isn’t her focus.

What I want to be clear about: she’s a good creator, good content, a community that respects her. What I can contribute is the immigration part, because that’s where I’m most plugged in. I’m applying through Express Entry with French, living through the federal tech program changes (which narrowed down to cyber security), watching a provincial program run out before I could even apply. So that’s the chair I’m speaking from. Let’s go.

Where I agree: the cookie-cutter recipe is dead

Paula opens her video giving an overview of how it used to work: you’d come over, do a college program, get Canadian experience, get the dreamed-of PR, become a citizen. That was the path, TR, PR, citizenship. A cookie-cutter recipe. And I agree 100% with her when she points out that this recipe no longer works as a general rule. These days that path has become a funnel that gets tighter and tighter, and anyone walking in thinking it’s still the automatic formula is going to faceplant.

And here’s something she said that I think is important to reinforce: people who’ve been in Canada longer get more spooked by this, because they always had that certainty about how it used to work. I’m a more conservative, more reserved person, I like things done right, and when the cookie-cutter recipe disappears, you feel a wave of insecurity. It’s natural. I’ve gotten burned twice myself with provincial changes, the tech program here in BC ran out (5,500 invitations for 4,000 spots, it already ate next year’s quota too), the federal tech program narrowed down to cyber security, and I don’t fit. So I know what it’s like to plan and watch the floor disappear.

I also agree with other points she brought up: the job market here is hard, especially for temporary residents. The Express Entry score is high, it’s demanding more. And the need for financial planning, for a plan A, B, C, D, that’s a rule of life for anyone immigrating. That chunk of her video is dead right.

Where I disagree (1): “there were lots of drastic changes” after the elections

This is where I start to disagree. Paula suggests that with the new prime minister and the new immigration minister there were lots of drastic changes to the programs. Honestly, I don’t think so. There were changes, sure, and I’m one of the most affected people, remember I mentioned the federal tech program that turned into cyber security and the provincial one that ran out? I got burned. But this isn’t a table-flip. This is the Liberal party continuing the same line they themselves had already been implementing.

The transition from Trudeau to Carney is continuity within the same party, it’s not a break. The focus now is fraud, not dismantling: they’re removing the LMIA points, shutting down fake applications that people used to hold status, gain Canadian experience, then apply to a provincial program. They’re focusing on things Canada genuinely needs, and each province needs things its own way. That’s tightening a screw, not tearing down the house.

Now, if the Conservative government had won? Then it would have been drastic. The current immigration target is 413,000 per year through 2027, almost half a million. If a Conservative government had come in, that would have dropped by at least half. At least. It could have gone to 100,000/year. That would have been a table-flip. But that’s not what happened. So the path continued, tighter, more selective, but it continued.

The number that matters

Burn this number into your head: 413,000 people per year through 2027. A total of roughly 1.2 to 1.5 million immigrants over the next 3 years. That’s the size of the window. It’s not “everything’s blurry, nobody knows where this is going”. The path is more defined than a lot of people will admit, narrower, yes, more demanding, yes, but defined. If you don’t sleep through this window, you make it.

Where I disagree (2): “stay in Brazil”

This is the strongest point of my disagreement, and it’s where I want you to pay the most attention. Paula suggests something like: “if you want to come to Canada, don’t come now, stay in Brazil because it’s too uncertain”. Look, I agree, but I don’t agree. Let me explain.

I agree with the part about preparing from Brazil. This is the golden hour. You can prepare from Brazil without spending a fortune here in Canada. The old path was: come over, drop a pile of money on college (mine was CAD 16,000, Clara’s was CAD 8,000), rent, food, stress, an entry-level job, 2 to 3 to 4 years before getting PR. Today you don’t need that anymore. You can arrive with a finished profile by preparing from Brazil. On that part she’s right.

What I disagree with is the framing “stay in Brazil because it’s uncertain”. That underestimates the open window. It’s not uncertain, it’s defined. The new cookie-cutter recipe is clear: learn English for the test (IELTS or CELPIP), learn French for the test (TEF or TCF, target CLB 5+, ideally CLB 7), validate your diploma (WES or equivalent), consider adding trades if it applies to your case. In 6 months to 2 years in Brazil, you arrive here with a strong Express Entry profile. You’ve got the knife and the cheese in your hands. I can’t stress this enough. It’s enough.

The difference between what she said and what I’m saying is subtle, but it’s important: she’s saying “wait, stay put”. I’m saying “prepare from Brazil now, because the window is now”. Both lead you to stay in Brazil, but the state of mind is different. One is hesitation, the other is strategy. You’re not in a holding pattern, you’re in active preparation mode. There’s a window, and it’s finite.

Why preparing from Brazil is better

A subscriber asked me straight up: “Caio, should I go to Canada to study French or study from here?”. Study from Brazil. You already have a routine, a job, context, support networks, people who know you. You know how your bank works, you know where to buy food, you know your family’s doctors. Coming here to study from scratch means adding cultural adaptation, language, a new professional profile, banking bureaucracy, transport, housing, all in parallel, all at once.

It’s a lot of discomfort in one shot. I know because I did it. I landed in Vancouver in September 2024, started working in construction demolition at CAD 23/hour a week later, and even so it took me months to understand how to open a bank account properly, how credit works here, how to pay a bill at TD. Brazil gives you a stable life where you only need to add English and French, without the emotional and financial cost of the shock. Take advantage of that while you can.

How much window is there to prepare?

Paula mentioned in her video something like “there’s still about 3 years of the Trump government to run out, you can see how it’s going to go”. Honestly, that calculation is optimistic. The current Canadian government is a minority. There could be a re-election in a year and a half, in 2 years. Very optimistic Conservatives talk about 1 year. Let’s think realistically: 1.5 to 2 years of window to plan with the current political setup.

If it switches to a Conservative government after that, then we really don’t know where it’s going, immigration target dropping by half, Francophone programs possibly getting cut, priorities shifting. That’s why the realistic plan is: learn English and French in 1 to 1.5 years (daily focus, hours blocked out in the week), validate your diploma, consider a rural program or an Atlantic province (BC already restricting to people already inside, Ontario prioritizing internal candidates, New Brunswick closed its external doors because it already hit 50% of the quota). When the political window shifts, you’re already sitting there with a finished profile. Whoever sleeps through these 18 months misses the jump.

What’s the new cookie-cutter recipe?

To make it mechanical, because we’re not here to philosophize, we’re here to do:

1. Rural program / Atlantic provinces, check current quotas (some have already closed to external candidates)
2. English for the test, IELTS or CELPIP, target CLB 7+
3. French for the test, TEF or TCF, target CLB 5 minimum, CLB 7 ideal (from CLB 7 you enter the Francophone category and the cutoff drops hard)
4. Diploma validation, WES or equivalent
5. Consider trades, Red Seal if it applies to your profile
6. Express Entry with a finished profile before you come, don’t arrive here to build it, arrive already built

Total time in Brazil: 6 to 24 months, depending on your starting point. Total cost: much lower than the CAD 60,000+ of the traditional college path.

”It’s not alarmism, it’s urgency”

I want to be clear about one thing: I don’t do alarmism. You won’t see me saying “come now, pack your bags, fly”. No. The message is: prepare well, but you don’t have all the time in the world. Whoever sleeps through this 1 to 2 year window loses, not because Canada is going to collapse, but because the competition grows, everybody’s doing French too (pretty soon French stops being a differentiator), and the path gets narrower with every cycle.

The difference between alarmism and urgency is simple: alarmism paralyzes you, urgency organizes you. The window is real, finite, known, 1.5 to 2 years before the next re-election. Use it.

I got your back

This text is a dialogue, not a takedown. Paula is a respected creator, she brought up good points in her video, and I agree with part of what she said, I just thought it was important to correct the parts I see from another angle, because that’s the part I’m living firsthand every day here in Vancouver. If you’re Paula reading this, here’s the invitation: we can trade ideas, I’d love to hear your counterpoint. If you’re a reader planning to immigrate, drop a comment below where you agree or disagree, with me or with her. Now is the time to prepare from Brazil. I got your back.