Oil and gas in Canada: production at a record, investment down 12.6%

Look, while last week’s headline was the stalled GDP, on Monday (June 1) Statistics Canada dropped two energy numbers that tell a more specific, and more useful, story for anyone eyeing a job in Alberta, Saskatchewan, or the oil and gas sector. The two numbers move in opposite directions: Canada is producing and exporting oil like never before, but the companies in the sector cut investment by 12.6% in the first quarter.

And this contradiction is not a technical detail. Production is what happens today; investment is what decides whether there will be a new job a year from now. When the two pull apart, it signals one thing: the companies are cashing in on the high price of the barrel, but they are not betting on the future. Let me show you the numbers.

What did Statistics Canada release about energy on Monday?

Two releases, on the same morning. The first, Quarterly capital spending: Oil and gas industries, shows that capital spending (capital expenditure, the money companies put into wells, pipelines, equipment, and expansion) in oil and gas extraction reached CAD 10.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 12.6% drop from the previous quarter. That is the number that matters for hiring: capex is what turns into construction, and construction is what turns into jobs.

The second release, Energy statistics for March, tells the other side. Primary energy production rose 0.9% compared with March 2025, with gains in 5 of the 6 subsectors. Marketable natural gas production grew 5.6% over the year, led by British Columbia (+13.8%). And the most telling figure: crude oil exports rose 4.2% over the year, to 22.5 million cubic metres, the highest level since the series began in 2016.

In other words: Canada has never exported so much crude oil. And even so, the companies extracting that oil are investing less.

If production and exports hit records, why did investment fall 12.6%?

That is the CAD 10.2 billion question, and I’ll be honest: the release does not explain the cause. What I can give you is my read, clearly flagged as my read. In theory, an expensive barrel should send investment soaring. The price of oil rose sharply in 2026 because of the war in the Middle East; the World Bank projects energy 24% more expensive over the year. With the barrel up, the normal move would be for companies to rush to open new wells. The opposite happened: capex fell 12.6%.

To me, that says companies are pocketing the profit from high prices instead of expanding. They produce the maximum they can with the structure they already have, hence the export record, but they hold back when it comes to betting on new projects. And it is not hard to understand why: the Bank of Canada itself, in its April statement, said that “tariffs and trade uncertainty are weighing on business investment.” No oil company builds a 10-year project without knowing whether its neighbour to the south will tax exports next year. The expensive barrel pays today’s bill; the uncertainty postpones tomorrow’s.

What does this change for anyone aiming at a job in the energy sector?

It changes the expectation. If you are looking at Alberta or Saskatchewan because of an oil and gas job, the picture is one of two time horizons. In the short term, production running flat out sustains the jobs that already exist: well operations, refining, and export logistics do not stop, and British Columbia pulling gas up 13.8% shows where activity is hot right now.

But in the medium term, capex falling 12.6% is a warning. Less investment means fewer new projects, fewer construction sites, less expansion, and it is precisely the new project that generates the hiring wave that draws immigrants into the sector. I would not arrive in Calgary in 2026 expecting the 2013 hiring boom. I would arrive expecting a market that holds on to those already inside, but that opens new jobs with the handbrake on. Calibrating that expectation before you buy the ticket is what separates those who arrive prepared from those who arrive frustrated.

Where is the energy sector actually growing?

In production, not construction. The message from the numbers is to follow the activity that is already running, not the promise of a future project. Natural gas in British Columbia (+13.8%) and the oil export infrastructure that unlocked this record of 22.5 million cubic metres are where labour demand is real and present. It is operations, maintenance, transport, export terminals.

What I would watch with more caution is any job tied to a “project that’s about to start.” With investment pulling back, an announced project is not a contracted project. Before accepting an offer that depends on a future expansion, I would ask, in capital letters, what phase the construction is in, because today’s number says a lot of things can be postponed.

What would I do in your shoes?

Three concrete things. First: I would stop treating “Canada exports record oil” as a synonym for “there are jobs to spare in the sector.” They are different things: production rose, investment fell, and it is investment that opens new jobs. Second: if energy is your plan, I would aim at the roles tied to production and exports that are already happening (operations, maintenance, logistics), not at the expansions that depend on a capex that is shrinking. Third: I would track the next data point. Oil and gas capex comes out every quarter, for free, in Statistics Canada’s The Daily, and two consecutive drops would confirm that the 12.6% decline was not a hiccup but a trend.

And here is where I stand: I am planning for the scenario where the sector holds cash and hires slowly, not for the boom the barrel price suggests but the investment numbers do not confirm. If I’m wrong and hiring comes back, great, you lose nothing by arriving with your feet on the ground. If I’m right, you arrive knowing where the job really is.

Sources

• Statistics Canada, Quarterly capital spending: Oil and gas industries, first quarter 2026 (The Daily, June 1, 2026): https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/260601/dq260601b-eng.htm
• Statistics Canada, Energy statistics, March 2026 (The Daily, June 1, 2026): https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/260601/dq260601a-eng.htm

Next oil and gas investment data (Q2 2026): around September. Energy statistics are monthly and come out in Statistics Canada’s The Daily.